Not too long ago, China’s Belt and Road Initiative had acquired the interest of the world. The BRI was pitched as a modern version of the ancient Silk Road when it was first proposed in 2013. Its goal was to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe through a network of roads and other infrastructure. For many developing countries, it promised roads, ports, railways, and pipelines – new, shiny assets delivered quickly and with fewer conditions than Western aid. But ten years later, the shine is fading. Instead of bringing together continents, the initiative shows how far China’s global strategy can go. Today, the BRI is failing, not just in how it works but also in its consistency, trust, and purpose.
There have been signs of problems with China’s grand plan for a while, but recent events in 2024 have made them very clear. Pakistan is one of the most important countries in the BRI because it is connected to China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. However, the country deals with project delays, security issues, and public backlash. Gwadar Port was once called the next Dubai, but it is still not being used enough. There isn’t much shipping going on there, and people are protesting because there aren’t enough jobs. Beijing has put more than $60 billion into Pakistan, but the returns have been terrible. The projects are having trouble. They are going over budget and the people who live there are unhappy because they don’t see any benefits from Chinese-led construction that uses Chinese workers and makes money for Chinese companies.
Africa, which used to be seen as a key part of the BRI’s southward expansion, is also fighting back. China paid for and built Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway, which is now in debt and losing money. Because they were afraid of defaulting, Zambia and Angola have renegotiated Chinese loans. Nigeria has also slowed down working together on infrastructure deals because they are worried about sovereignty and debt traps. These changes are part of a bigger trend: the BRI is now linked to debt that can’t be paid off and promises that aren’t kept.
Even in Southeast Asia, where China’s economic power is strong, people are becoming doubtful. The East Coast Rail Link in Malaysia was canceled in 2018, but it was renegotiated with stricter terms and less money. The Kyaukphyu deep-sea port project in Myanmar is on hold because of worries about environmental damage and opposition from locals. Countries find that Beijing’s loans often have high interest rates, unclear terms, and an expectation of strategic alignment that is becoming less appealing in a world with many powers.
One of the most obvious problems with the BRI is that it is not clear or well-organized. There is no one group in charge of all the projects. There is no one standard for lending. Instead, there are state-owned businesses, private Chinese companies, local contractors, and host governments all working together without a common framework. This lack of organization has caused corruption, wasted time, and a trail of unfinished roads and buildings from Sri Lanka to Montenegro. A lot of the time, projects were approved for political reasons instead of economic ones, which led to ghost ports, empty airports, and roads that went nowhere.
In 2024, it’s interesting that even Chinese voices are starting to speak up. Last year, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce quietly changed its rules for lending money to other countries, making riskier projects less likely to happen. In 2023, there were almost 40% fewer new BRI deals signed than in 2016 when the number was at its highest. As China’s economy slows down, Beijing has started to focus more on its problems and less on those of other countries. China’s interest in funding big overseas projects has gone down because youth unemployment is rising, the property crisis is getting worse, and foreign investment is slowing down.
The BRI has also become a geopolitical problem. The US, the EU, India, and Japan have all started their programs to fight back. For example, the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment and India’s involvement in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) are two examples. These other options focus on openness, protecting the environment, and working together with many countries – things that the BRI has not done well. Countries are looking for more options as the world becomes more wary of relying too much on China for strategic purposes.
India’s strategic opposition to BRI has been a major problem for Beijing. New Delhi has not only refused to take part, but it has also actively questioned the legality of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which goes through land which is not Pakistan’s to give away and hence, still in dispute. India has instead built its partnerships in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, focusing on people, digital infrastructure, and maritime security. India’s approach differs from the BRI because it focuses on local ownership, capacity building, and democratic values. These are things that many developing countries value more in their economic relationships with other nations.
Now, even China’s closest allies are being more careful. Bangladesh turned down a big BRI highway project in 2024 because of the risk of losing money. Nepal has asked Japan and India to invest in its hydropower sector, instead of turning to China. At the same time, Beijing’s increasingly authoritarian actions, from issues in the South China Sea to internal crackdowns, have made it harder for allies to rely on them for long-term strategic cooperation.
What started as a grand plan has become a huge, jumbled mess of political favors, unfinished projects, and growing debt. China still calls the BRI a success, but many people within and outside Beijing disagree. It hasn’t been able to provide steady growth or goodwill in politics. There is no plan, no way to measure success, and most importantly, no one is accounting for mounting failures.
What does the future hold? The BRI may still exist in name, but it may not yield in substance without major changes to its structure and planning. Experts agree that the BRI could end up being a warning story instead of a plan for global growth as China focuses on its problems and its international partners become more cautious.
The Belt and Road Initiative demonstrated to the world China’s global dominance, however in 2024, that global confidence in China has taken a hit economic problems, diplomatic resistance, and a changing world order.
